Even-strength goals = career goals − power-play goals − shorthanded goals, from the NHL’s official regular-season career totals. Same formula for both players.
Gretzky: 894 − 204 − 73 = 617. That matches the record as it’s usually cited. Empty-net goals count as even strength here, same as in the 617.
Departures divide the goals still needed by three different rates (this season, last season, career) and round up. They assume he plays every game and nothing changes. Hockey has never once worked like that.
“Arrives” uses an 84-game schedule and Washington’s games played so far. It’s arithmetic, not a forecast, and says nothing about whether he’ll still be playing.
Gordie Howe’s 566 comes from CBS Sports, which reported Ovechkin’s 565 as “just one behind” Howe in April 2025.
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