Butterfly Effect
Does one hit change the game? We timed every goal after every hit this season.
The next sixty seconds
What happens after
How often each team scores in the minute after a play, next to how often a team scores in any minute.
Team that made the play scoresOther team scoresAny minute
Chains of the week
Flaps that came true
The latest tying and go-ahead goals of the last seven days with a hit or giveaway in the minute before. Exceptions, not the rule.
By team
Whose hits actually work
How often a team scores in the minute after its own hit, against how often it scores in any minute. 1.00× means the hit changed nothing. Open a team for its five latest chains.
Arena check
Where the hits get counted
Hits recorded per game, both teams, by home rink. Hits are counted by each arena's own scorers, so part of this gap is the scorekeeper, not the hockey.
The lab notes
- The window: a goal counts if it comes in the 60 seconds after the play, inside the same period. Empty-net goals and shootouts don't count.
- The baseline: pick any second of any game. The chance a given team scores in the next 60 seconds is the dashed line. Lift is the play's rate divided by that.
- Zones: from the point of view of the team that made the play. An own-zone giveaway is a turnover in front of your own net.
- Why hits look bad: hits often come before a whistle and in your own end, while your team doesn't have the puck. That's a guess the data can't prove, but takeaways, which win the puck, beat the baseline.
- Chains: every hit, giveaway and takeaway in the minute before a tying or go-ahead goal, after any earlier goal that period. They're stories, not proof.
- Margins: the ± is a 95% range on the rate. Team numbers are noisier; teams under hits aren't rated.
Sources